Wild hold inside track to final wild card spot

The playoff picture is really starting to come into focus out west. With just under 20 games to go, the top three teams in the Pacific have pulled away, while the top three in the Central have essentially done the same. On top of that, another Central club has set itself apart as a pretty clear wild card favorite.

That leaves one final wild card spot, with essentially two teams fighting to claim it. Something crazy could happen, and someone else could make a late push — like Ottawa and the Hamburglar did down the stretch a year ago. But, for the time being, it appears the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild will be the ones vying for that second wild card berth. One will get in, and one will be sent packing.

Entering play on Saturday, each team had 70 points in the standings. That puts them firmly ahead of Arizona and Vancouver, the next closest teams, with 60 points apiece. And it has them six points behind Nashville for the first wild card.

To be fair, if Minnesota or Colorado were to catch fire here, either (or both) of them could feasibly catch the Predators too. As it stands though, their biggest obstacle is probably going to be each other. There are a few key areas where one team will have the advantage as the most pivotal portion of the season approaches.

Games Remaining – The Avalanche currently hold the tiebreaker in terms of wins with 33, as compared to 30 for the Wild. But Minnesota has 17 games left, while Colorado has 16. At this point, every little bit helps. And games in hand are about as valuable as gold in March and April.

Head-to-Head – Despite their general struggles earlier this year, the Wild still hold the edge in the season series between these two clubs, going 3-0-1 through the first four meetings. They’ll square off one final time in Denver on March 26, and that contest alone could go a long way towards determining the final wild card spot.

Schedule – It’s March, so no one has an “easy” schedule the rest of the way. The Avalanche may have it a little tougher than the Wild down the stretch though. Of the final 16 games Colorado plays, ten are against clubs currently in playoff spots — and another is against a Philadelphia Flyers team that is still fighting for their postseason lives. The back nine is especially challenging, as Patrick Roy’s group closes out the regular season with a string of games against the Flyers, Wild, Predators (twice), Blues (twice), Capitals, Stars, and Ducks. If they’re going to make a legitimate push, the next couple weeks before they have to face that daunting slate will be especially vital.

Minnesota’s task isn’t exactly simple either, but at least the Wild have some “breaks” along the way. Of their final 17 contests, ten are against non-playoff teams. And they’re spread out, so, on paper at least, it appears less likely that Minnesota is in line for any prolonged losing streaks. Matchups with the Sabres, Oilers, Canadiens, Senators (twice), Devils, Hurricanes, Flames (twice) and Jets are scattered over the last month. Again, nothing is “easy” this time of year, but that looks a lot more favorable when compared to the obstacle course Colorado has to get through.

March 03 2016: The Avalanche bench congratulates Colorado Avalanche left wing, Mikkel Boedker (89) following a goal during a game between the Colorado Avalanche and the visiting Florida Panthers. (Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

Moves – The Wild didn’t exactly pull off a blockbuster at the trade deadline, as their only move of real consequence for this season was the last-second acquisition of David Jones from Calgary. Jones notched a career-high 27 goals and 45 total points back in the 2010-11 campaign, but has trailed off since then. A year ago, he mustered 14 goals and 30 points for the Flames, and posted a 9-6-15 line over 59 games before being dealt last week. It’s possible he gives Minnesota a jolt on the second or third line, but he’s not a game-changer.

The Avalanche, on the other hand, were at the center of one of Monday’s bigger deals — landing Mikkel Boedker in a trade with Arizona. Boedker’s coming off a 2014-15 season in which he piled up 14 goals and 14 assists over just 45 games, before missing the final few months because of a spleen injury. The year before that, he posted a career-best 19-32-51 line.

Boedker has had playoff success before too, helping trigger the Coyotes’ run to the Western Conference Finals in 2012 with a couple overtime goals against Chicago in the opening round. And it’s entirely possible that moving to a line with Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon will be enough to get him going again. He was in a prolonged slump before the deadline, posting just one goal in his final 27 outings with Arizona. Through two games with Colorado, he’s already matched that output.

Goaltending – Semyon Varlamov delivered the best year of his career in 2013-14, finishing behind only Tuukka Rask in the Vezina voting. He hasn’t reached that level for the Avalanche since though, and has struggled at times this season, to the tune of a 2.79 goals against average.

On the other hand, Devan Dubnyk is coming off a 2014-15 season that literally saw him save his career, salvage the Wild’s season, and go on such a tremendous second-half run that he found himself in Vezina contention. This year hasn’t been nearly as dynamic, but he’s still been solid. His 2.35 GAA and four shutouts were enough to keep Minnesota afloat while the offense struggled — and also enough to earn Dubnyk a trip to the All-Star game.

Intangibles – The Wild have the x-factor of a mid-season coaching change potentially working in their favor. That’s obviously not a card that you can play often, but it can provide a jolt under the right circumstances.

Since making the switch from Mike Yeo to John Torchetti on February 14, Minnesota has gone 7-3. Even if the move does nothing more than spark a strong finish to the regular season, that could be enough to lock up a coveted wild card spot.

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